Risk terminology and calculations
Risk is the probability that a threat will exploit a vulnerability and cause harm to an asset. Asset value, threat likelihood, and vulnerability severity all feed into risk. You cannot have risk without all three: a threat with no vulnerable target is not a risk, and a vulnerability with no threat is not a risk.
Quantitative risk analysis assigns dollar values to everything. Asset Value (AV) is what the asset is worth. Exposure Factor (EF) is the percentage of asset value lost if the threat occurs. Single Loss Expectancy (SLE) equals AV times EF. Annual Rate of Occurrence (ARO) is how many times per year the threat is expected to occur. Annual Loss Expectancy (ALE) equals SLE times ARO. ALE is what you compare against the cost of a control: if the control costs more than the ALE reduction it provides, it may not be worth implementing.
Qualitative risk analysis skips the dollar values and uses subjective scales like high, medium, and low, or numerical rankings. It is faster and does not require precise data, which is often unavailable. Most real-world risk programs blend both approaches.
Risk response strategies
After assessing a risk, you choose how to respond. There are four options. Risk avoidance means stopping the activity that creates the risk entirely. A company that stops accepting credit card payments avoids the risk of card data breach, but also loses revenue. Avoidance is appropriate when the risk outweighs the benefit of the activity.
Risk mitigation reduces the likelihood or impact of the risk through controls. Installing a firewall mitigates the risk of unauthorized network access. Mitigation does not eliminate risk, it reduces it to an acceptable level. Risk transference shifts the financial impact of the risk to a third party, typically through insurance or a contract. The underlying risk still exists, but your organization bears less of the financial consequence if it materializes.
Risk acceptance acknowledges the risk and decides to live with it. This is appropriate when mitigation costs more than the risk itself, or when the risk is genuinely low. Acceptance is a deliberate decision, not ignoring the risk. It should be documented and revisited periodically.
How to choose the correct answer
Risk calculations: SLE = AV x EF. ALE = SLE x ARO. If a risk costs $50,000 per occurrence (SLE), happens twice a year (ARO = 2), ALE = $100,000. A control that costs $30,000 and reduces ALE to $20,000 saves $50,000 annually and is worth implementing.
Risk response matching: stop the risky activity = avoidance. Implement a control = mitigation. Buy insurance = transference. Document and accept = acceptance.
Residual risk: the risk that remains after controls are applied. No control eliminates all risk. Total risk without any controls is inherent risk.
Control types: preventive (stops the threat), detective (identifies the threat), corrective (recovers from the threat). A single control can serve multiple types simultaneously.